Fantasy football bounce-back candidates
Find players whose current ADP is cheaper than their recent points-per-game baseline after a down season. This is a mean-reversion screen, not a projection model.
Mean-reversion and ADP discount signals
Use this table to find players with strong recent production baselines who are being drafted at least five positional spots cheaper than that baseline. Then use age, injuries, and WR breakout profile to decide whether the discount is attractive.
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How to read the bands
The middle band is each player's average FantasyPros PPR points per game from the last three completed seasons. The lower and upper bands are two standard deviations below and above that average.
The discount column compares current positional ADP rank to where the player would rank by recent PPR/G baseline. Positive numbers mean the market is drafting the player cheaper than that baseline.
Age comes from nflverse player metadata. WR breakout age comes from the LevelUpFantasy WR Breakout Age Database, so you can filter out older bounce-back bets or wide receivers with late/no-breakout profiles.
Players age 29 or older with a positive production dip are labeled for age-decline review instead of top bounce-back target, because age-related decline can explain the dip.
Top bounce-back candidates are defined by baseline quality first: players are sorted by 3-year PPR/G, then flagged when their current positional ADP is at least five spots cheaper than their baseline rank.
The bounce-back signal is a screen for possible recency-bias discounts. It should be checked against injury history, offensive environment, depth-chart changes, age, and prospect profile before you draft.